“India A Global Power BY 2020”
By
Venkatakrishnan Ramaswamy
February 2004
INTRODUCTION
Many visionaries have envisioned our country to transform into a Global Power by 2020. I too envision the same and hence have chosen this topic. In this paper I have speculated the factors that are conducive and the major hindrances in achieving our goal of converting our nation into a ‘Global Power’.
56 years after independence and 54 years after the establishment of the Republic there is a widely shared desire in the country to evaluate the gains made as also to assess our future. Undoubtedly, the people of the country and the managers of society can be congratulated on many counts for India's achievements since independence which include self-sufficiency (in fact surplus generation) in food-grains, a strong industrial base, a rising expectancy of life, a higher percentage of literacy, a united and better integrated India and a growing recognition by the world of our capabilities and potential On the negative side, one could count the nagging problems of unemployment, illiteracy and poverty accentuated by an ever increasing population. Also, a low per capita income, inadequate infrastructure, feudalistic tendencies and worst of all a pathetic contempt of rule of law and ethics in public life.
The population of our country is around d 1.1 billion and increasing annually at the rate of 1.5% mainly due to increase in life expectancy to 63.2 years and decrease in infant mortality to 67 for every 1000 births. According to statisticians 54 % (i.e. 540 million) of the population is comprised of the youth below the age of 24 and 45% of them are below 19 years.
For the year 2002 the Gross national income (GNI) was US $ 501.5 billion and per capita GNI was US $ 480 (which is around Rs.22,000 per year) which has also shown a steady increase. Our present Gross domestic product is around 446.2 billion dollars and has risen by 8 to 8.4%. Our exports also show a rising trend.
People are becoming more and more computer savvy. Number of people using the internet has shown a drastic rise from 1.4 million in 2001 to 6.7 million in 2002. Due to the subsidy available to technical imports the number of computers per 1000 people has risen to 10. Number of telephone line connection has increased to 4.75crores and mobile phones have increased to 2crores. Under The Golden Quadrilateral, The North-South-East-West Corridor and The Gramin Sadak Yojna projects construction of the network of roads linking the villages and cities throughout the country have started. ITC’s e-Choupel project is empowering the farmers with the internet.
India’s export in the year 2002-03 was around $ 57.1 billion which has doubled over a period of 8 years. India’s share of export of commercial goods and services has increased to 0.9% in 2001 from 0.6% in 1995. Over the same period of time there has been increase in imports from 0.78% to 0.99%. Being a WTO member it .also enjoys the Most Favored Nation status. India’s present forex reserve is more than $104 billion. Its software exports have grown rapidly (to around $ 8 billion) and its recent success at providing Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) services across the industrialized world is unique, having grown by 70 per cent last year. India has now decided to prepay the $ 3 billion of high interest loans and stop accepting aid from all but a small group of donors.
Some of the negative aspects that we face today are annual increase of 15 million in population, corruption, bureaucracy, lack of self belief, low per capita income, improper distribution of wealth, social, racial, religious and sex discrimination, high percentage of illiteracy, backward states like UP and Bihar, the Kashmir issue and many other terrorist activities.
CONDUCIVE FACTORS AND HINDRANCES
Population Distribution:
As stated earlier 54% of India’s population (i.e. 540 million) comprises of youth below 24 years and of that 450 million are below 19 years. This large human resource should be tapped properly. India’s young demographic profile has both the skills and the potential. What it needs is the right push in the right direction.
Rising population:
Steadily rising population is one of our major concerns. Every year we add 15million to the world population, which is equal to the population of a country like Australia or double that of Switzerland. For such a rate of rise we have to generate employment also at that rate. This is a mammoth task for any administrator.
Literacy level and social discrimination:
The latest literacy levels indicate that we still have over 350 million illiterates in India. This number is much higher than the population if any other country except China. There is a huge social divide among the populace because of discrimination between people on the basis of caste, creed, religion and race. Huge reservation quota for a certain section of the society kills the very spirit of competition.
Terrorism:
India spends huge amount of money in fighting terrorism in Kashmir and other Naxal prone areas. In the recent times terrorism has emerged as one of the gravest threats to peace and democratic policy. Youth are drawn between different acts of terrorism. In some cases, it is not really terrorism, but a freedom struggle. This is how our neighbour has been trying to justify its policy of cross-border terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir. Youth organisations should carry out an awareness campaign to expose justification or condoning of terrorism anywhere and under whatever pretext.
Corruption and Bureaucracy:
Corruption and bureaucratic processes are the social evils which has gripped our country. Many shy away from starting their own business enterprises here. We have heard of many success stories like that of Sabeer Bhatia who were successful in the US but could not replicate the same here. There is lack of transparency in the working of the Government. Wrong policy making and wrong assumption like the education act which fines the parents for sending their children to work on the assumption that parents are the main cause of child labour exploitation. No parents send their child to work willingly. It is the economic constraints and unemployment which are the root cause.
Beware of China:
Both India and China grew at a rate twice the world average last year. Like us China also has an ambition to become a superpower by 2020. We have to be wary of it as it can condescend to any level to achieve its goals. To reach their goal they have mastered the art of asymmetric warfare, as it cannot as yet prevail by direct confrontation. At the lower spectrum of power play, Pakistan endeavors to unravel India acting as a Chinese surrogate and end our primacy in the sub-continent. It has also adopted policies like levying 55% duty on steel imports and increasing the price of coal Rs.1430 per tonne to Rs.2530 per tonne. Coal is one the most essential commodities in major manufacturing and infrastructure industries like cement, steel, power, etc.
Burgeoning middle class:
India as described by many still remains the land of the masses. Only 28% of its population resides in the urban area. This number is steadily increasing because of the influx from villages in search education, opportunities and employment which has contributed to the burgeoning middle class. As Mr.Gurcharan Das has put it “When half the population in a society is middle class, its politics will change. Its world view will be different, its poor will be fewer and society will have greater means to look after them. Thus, to focus on the middle class is to focus on prosperity. This is unlike in the past, when our focus has been on redistributing poverty. This does not mean that we are becoming callous. On the contrary, the whole purpose of the enterprise is to lift the poor — and lift them into the middle class. “
Geo-strategic location:
Our geo-strategic location is a very important conducive factor. We can act as the backbone or the regional hub to West, Central and East Asia. With our coastal area jutting right out into the Indian Ocean, we are a continental as well as a maritime power. Far-flung from the mainland, many with myopic vision feel hassled by having to secure the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. The truth is that these Islands located in the midst of the Indian Ocean act as an unsinkable aircraft carrier. We can project naval power beyond the region, protect the EEZ (expanding economic zone) and develop it into a tourist’s Shangri La! Today India is in a unique position to access military technology worldwide. This opportunity should be used to retrofit the Armed Forces with the modern and lethal equipment available, making them the most potent military machine in the region.
China’s disadvantage:
Within Asia China’s population is set to rapidly age after 2010 unlike ours and shall grow old before it grows rich. But India’s young demographic profile has both, skills and the potential to grow rich before it grows old. Though the size of the population by itself does not confer great power status, a large young population is a prerequisite to evolve as a major player.
Feel Good factor:
We can see an emergence of a new mood of confidence in India Inc. This confidence was based on strong macro indicators, such as foreign exchange reserves of over $100 billion, the booming stock exchanges (BSE:5636 as on 16th FEB’04) and a realization that the progress made in the last 12 years of reform was merely a curtain raiser for the higher growth to follow. There is a clear sign of a global economic recovery, which means that global companies are on the lookout for making investments in emerging countries.
BPO sector:
The global recovery was also exerting pressure on companies to cut costs. Both these provided tremendous opportunity for India to emerge as a high quality sourcing base. According to Kiran Karnik of Nasscom value of Bussiness Process Outsourcing (BPO) service exports in 2002-2003 was $2.5b. In 1999-00 Information Technology Export Services (ITES) amounted to $565million. This sector has shown a growth of 5 times in the last three years. By March 2003 ITES sector employed 1.71 lac people as compared to 1.06 lac the previous year, showing an increase of 60%. He predicts that the BPO sector is set to increase by 10 times in 2-3 years. This sector is set to generate more employment and create entrepreneurial opportunities.
International Acquisitions:
Many Indian companies have shown their competitiveness and made their global presence felt by acquiring foreign companies. Subhash Chandra’s Essel packaging has taken over Propack of Switzerland to become the #1 company in the world. Tata tea took over a much larger Tetley Tea, Tata motors-Daewoo truck factories in South Korea for $211b, Ranbaxy the biggest pharmaceutical company has acquired RPG Aventis, Wockhardt owned BY Khorakhiwalas acquired CP pharmaceuticals of UK, Hindalco-flagship of K.Birla acquired copper mines in Austrralia, Sterlite Industries successful bidder for the privatization of Bharat Aluminium & Hindustan zinc acquired copper mines in Australia and the preferred bidder for buying 51% stake in Konkola copper mines in Zambia.
SAARC Meet:
In the recent SAARC meet held at Islamabad India’s Prime Minister Shri.A.B.Vajpayee laid the foundation for the formation of union of SAARC nations on the lines of the European Union. His visit to ASEAN countries signals renewed efforts to engage and draw the region closer to India. Similarly, becoming an observer member of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) on our West and enhanced cooperation with Central Asia augurs well for India. Dialogue and cooperation with nations of West, Central and South East Asia are acquiring a more meaningful dimension today than at any other time in the history of this nation.
Development of infrastructure:
Many infrastructure development projects have been announced and undertaken which are generating employment. Since 1999-2000 there has been an annual increase of 84 lakh in employment. Under ‘Pradhan Mantri Bharat Jodo Pariyojna’ (PMBJP) the National Highways Department is constructing a network of roads bringing the cities and villages closer. Such schemes employ 5 lac people per day. Many initiatives like ‘Rashtriya Sam Vikas Yojna’, ’Border Area Development’, ‘Development of North East’ have been under taken to reduce disparities.
Negotiations with Pakistan:
The breakthrough in the negotiations with Pakistan has lowered tensions with Pakistan which has increased India's investment climate and also ensure that security tensions do not force the government to shift focus from important economic reforms. This will improve the tourism in the state.
Kalam’s words: “Youth is the spring of life. It is the age of discovery and dreams. When they dream, they dream not only for a good future for themselves, but also a good future for their Nation and the entire humanity. Their dreams take them to stars and galaxies, to the far corners of the Unknown. And some of them, like our own Kalpana Chawla, pursue their dream till they realise it and even die for it in the process.
If any section of society, in any country, is most impatient for change, it is the youth. Patriotism comes naturally to young people. But they also easily respond to the call of internationalism.”
“The future” as Eleanor Roosevelt had once said “belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.” What the youth need is-to dream about becoming a Global power by 2020 and believe in it. Yes! Many might laugh at you and even criticize, at those times remember this quote “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight along with you, then you win.” We need to have the “Can do” “Can succeed” and “Can win” attitude.
“No man is happy without a goal and no man can be happy without the faith in his own ability to reach the goal”
-L.Ron Hubbard
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